Tuesday, July 09, 2013

What is Robby Hefflinger?

Is he the second coming of Cody Johnson or is there more to him than just a slugging corner OF? 

Well the short answer to the question is, no he isn't Cody Johnson. Not by a long shot. If you don't know who Cody Johnson is just click that link up there. Actually I will give a short explanation. He was a first round draft pick in 2006 who most people considered a reach at the time in a thin draft. Power was always his calling card and he had it in bunches. The problem, as with most power hitters, is he completely sold out for power. But really in a way that no one else did. His lowest strikeout rate at any stop, at any level in the minors was 26.7%. So yeah, contact problems. 

Robby Hefflinger. Since being drafted Hefflinger has always been said to have good raw power. The problem was, unlike Johnson, it never really showed up in games. You don't have to look far to see why he has raw power: he stands 6' 5" and weighs 235. He's an athletic big guy as well, serving as a backup catcher in college on top of being a pitcher. But all that size and athleticism has taken time to develop in to in game results. He has shown steady improvement each year. In 2009 he posted just .288 wOBA in 240 AB with Danville. In 2010 he made the Rome roster, but had just a .298 wOBA (.132 ISO). 2011 saw him return to Rome for a full season, but he still showed little improvement with .303 wOBA and .151 ISO. His strikeout rate was 26.7% and his walks dropped from 8.1% in 2010 to 5.2% in 2011. 

Hefflinger made one last trip to Rome in 2012 and something clicked. In 296 AB there he hit 12 homers (already a career high) and had a .200 ISO. His strikeouts dropped to 23.8% and his walks jumped to 11.2%, both of which were career bests. That season just set up his breakout in 2013. His 23 homers are obviously already a career high, and his .293 ISO is nearly 100 points better than his previous high. He has even kept his K rate below 25%. His walks have suffered some, but that can probably be attributed to him just hitting the ball so well. 

So what do we have here? At 23 he isn't a young guy, but the Cardinals are proving that everyone doesn't have to be Jason Heyward, Bryce Harper or Julio Teheran to be a useful player. Hefflinger has enough power in his bat that I think he could be a useful player in the majors. Maybe even a starter. He has made the adjustments necessary as he moved up the ladder, even if he spent a couple years on one rung. His K rate has lowered as he has moved up, which I LOVE to see, and his walks have fluctuated but remained solid enough. I wouldn't be surprised if he flamed out in AA or AAA, but there is enough potential here to have a nice player in a couple of seasons in case one of our OFers disappears. 

Saturday, July 06, 2013

Braves First Round Pick Jason Hursh Makes His Pro Debut

The Braves took Jason Hursh in the first round with the 31st overall pick in this June's draft. He signed for $1,704,200 which was exactly slot value for the pick. He made his debut last night in the Sally League against the Asheville Tourists. He pitched two innings and struck out three while walking one and allowing zero hits. Not a bad debut, especially considering a nearly two hour rain delay.

The Hursh pick was met with lukewarm reception from many of the Braves fans I know, which honestly befuddles me. Is he a perfect prospect? Well he has already had Tommy John surgery, but his 98 mph fastball seems to indicate that is behind him. Early scouting reports indicate that while his fastball is excellent, he is in need of better developed secondary pitches, but the fastball is so good he might just be able to get by  with just average secondary stuff. He is 21 years old (22 in October) and Julio Teheran is 22. So no he isn't young by many prospect standards, but I don't expect him to be in the minors for more than a season and a half. Some people wanted us to go for a bat in this spot, but this draft was so thin to begin with I just don't know if you have anyone out there who can be an impact player that late in the first round. Hursh can be an impact arm.

I think we got a guy who has a fairly high floor as a hard throwing reliever and a high ceiling if he can leverage the secondary offerings into something more. One thing the Braves are lacking is a top of the rotation starter. They have several solid pitchers who make good #2 or #3 pitchers, but I'm not convinced that even Teheran is a top of the rotation guy. Hursh has that live fastball that can't be taught. If his secondary stuff comes around he could be a very valuable guy in a couple of seasons. I think with J.R. Graham's injury, Hursh jumps to the top of our prospect list.


I'm Back with a little Joey Terdoslavich on the side

It has only been 7 years right? Why am I back after such a long hiatus? Because I love Braves baseball and I love minor league baseball. And those two things were pretty much everything this blog was supposed to be about back when I decided to start in many, many years ago. So where have I been you ask? Long story, but I wrote for another Braves blog (Talking Chop) for about six years as their minor league recap guy. That was fun until it became more job-ish than I really wanted. I left for a year and then was asked to return by Martin, the site manager. But then he left after two months and that was my queue to leave as well. I still visit TC, and it really is the best Braves blog out there, but it was just too rigid anymore for what I wanted to do. 

So I took time off and realized that I still want to write, that I had been doing it so long, that I guess I needed to keep doing it. And then I checked the cold, dead husk of this, my original blog, and saw that it had 26 hits on July 4, 2013. WHAT?!?! And that reminded me why I wanted to do all of this in the first place: people want info about Braves minor league players and there still aren't a ton of places to find it. So I am making a comeback, and I am older and wiser than I ever was before (well at least a better writer anyways). 

Lets talk about Joey Terdoslavich shall we? The Braves just called up "Terdo" (on the record? I hate that name, but unfortunately it looks like it will stick) and I am sure a lot of people are wondering what we have with him. I've always been a fan of the guy because I just have a thing for doubles hitters. He was drafted out of Long Beach State as a power hitting third baseman, and I am sure the Braves would have loved for that to work out, but Terdo is terrible in the field just about anywhere he is. They tried him at third in the minors for a couple of years but eventually he got moved across the diamond to first and then to the outfield where he has found a home. 

Back to the doubles thing: he can hit them and hit a lot of them. In 2011 at Lynchburg he set the Carolina League record for doubles in a season with 52. He also hit 20 homers that year which also isn't bad. After a disappointing start in Gwinnett in 2012 he was shipped to Mississippi to get things on track and put up similar numbers to his Lynchburg campaign. He returned to Gwinnett for 2013 and put together a fantastic half season with a .318/.359/.567 line with 18 homers and 24 doubles. His June stats were the most impressive with 10 of his homers coming during the month and adding 13 walks (he had just 9 in the first two months of the season). 

So what are the negatives? Well he can't really hit lefties that well (.235/.304/.382 so far in 2013). We already talked about how he can't field. And he doesn't take many walks. Although he has gradually gotten better throughout his career (going from a 6% rate all the way up to 8.8% this season). He doesn't strike out a ton either which can offset the lack of walks. Aaaaand the only positions he can play are currently manned but Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Freddie Freeman. Even if he could play third it isn't like Chris Johnson has been a gaping hole at third. 

So what we have now is a guy who could be a nice pinch hitter against right handers and someone who can spell Freddie Freeman, the corner OFs or even fill in at DH until Evan Gattis gets back.. but may not have a place on this team in the future.